Since Yemen’s first ever elections in 1993, the slogan “Free and Fair Elections” has been used, and sometimes abused, by Yemen’s political parties before upcoming elections.

Now it is less than six months until the April 27, 2009 election day for Yemen’s fourth parliamentary elections. However, the political parties are still in a stalemate. They have been talking the talk about free and fair elections in a series of failed dialogue rounds for more than two years.

Both the ruling People’s General Congress (PGC) and the opposition alliance of the Joint Meeting Parties (JMPs) have failed to honor their previous agreements to conduct competitive elections, despite admissions that this would be good for this emerging and very young democracy. Instead, both sides continue to hurl accusations and blame the other for political failures.

The JMPs, which include the three main opposition parties of the Islamists, Socialists and Nasserites, have refused to recognize the body in charge of administering the upcoming elections and have called their members and supporters to boycott all steps being taken to prepare for elections next April. They have deemed this panel “illegal.”

In spite of boycotts, and even some violent acts in the southern provinces of Al Dhale’e and Lahj the election panel did begin the preparation process this November. Instead of the boycotting political party members, it enlisted the help of more than 33,000 school teachers.

However, “the doors of dialogue will remain open” as optimists on both sides always say.

The President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is both head of State and head of the ruling PGC, called for new rounds of dialogue between his party and the JMPs. He stated that it was imperative to reach an agreement on a compatible mechanism for administration the elections, and that the formation of an independent and neutral elections panel was of the utmost importance.

“We call the JMPs to constructive dialogue, not dialogue of the deaf,” Saleh said earlier in November in a meeting conducted under the slogan of “towards free, fair, and transparent elections” held by his ruling party (PGC).

During the same speech, President Saleh accused the opposition JMPs of wanting to postpone the elections. “Some opposition members of the parliament demanded the postponement of elections. If postponement is in the interest of the nation, ok, but this will mean that conditions in Yemen are unstable and there is a crisis, while in fact there is no crisis. Everybody is against postponement, except those who do not want to participate in elections.”

The opposition, however, argue that their participation will only add legitimacy to a nominal democracy which will support the interest of the current “regime,” and will not be in the interest of all parties. The Assistant Secretary General of Islah, Mohammed Al Sa’ad, said, “The JMP will not participate if their demands are not met. We will not give legitimacy to a decorative democracy that is used to protect corruption.”

The opposition demands to have competitive elections in which they compete with another political party, and not against a “State,” meaning the resources of the State should not be used to confront the opposition opponents. They demand guarantees for neutrality of public finance, the media, and army etc.

Political analyst, Mohammed Al Sabri, who is also a prominent politician in the JMPs, said,“There is a crisis and to get out of it, all the parties should get rid of their old styles in dealing with crises. We need a national, responsible, and transparent dialogue.” He added, “The conflict now is not over competitive elections. The conflict is about recognition. The JMPs feel they are not recognized as partners, and this the big problem.”

Prior to the 2006 presidential elections, the opposition parties voiced similar complaints. However, in the end they sat at the negotiation table and reached an agreement to reform the electoral system. However, they were able to solve all of the issues before those elections. They did agree on one thing though; they added two opposition members (Islah and Nasserite) to the previously 7-member supreme elections committee. Thus, the committee now consists of 9-members with the ruling PGC having 5 and JMPs 4.

At the time, they agreed to continue steps of reforming the electoral system after the presidential elections in which the opposition presidential candidate, Faisal bin Shamlan, won only some 21 per cent of the vote. They also agreed to form the supreme committee sat on by judges, rather than of partisan members. However, no agreement could be reached to implement these changes in a policy called the Accord of Principles, despite numerous of rounds of dialogue between the two sides after the 2006 election.

In August 2008, the two sides were nearly ready to vote on amendments to the current elections law with the aim of forming a more independent and neutral committee. Minutes before voting on August 18, the two sides returned to exchange charges and blame.

The JMPs members of parliament (about 60) walked out of the House. The ruling PGC, with its overwhelming majority (about 240), decided to cancel the amendments and voted for a new committee. The opposition refused the results and considered it as an “overthrow” on democracy.

The ruling party, however, says “democracy is majority,” and that deals and compromises do not fall under the constitution and law. “They want to postpone the elections. They are convinced of this, they will not change their mind even if we keep talking with them for tens of years,” said Sultan Al Barakani, Assistant Secretary General of the ruling PGC.

President Saleh is still pushing a new initiative to expand the election panel to 11 members instead of 9. The JMPs will have 5 and the PGC 6. The subcommittees will be distributed 54 per cent for PGC and 46 per cent for JMPs. As of Monday, November 17th, this initiative was still unapproved by both sides. It is the same initiative proposed by President Saleh late last October, through his political adviser Abdul Kareem Al Eryani, but no agreement has been reached at this time.

In contrast to popular opinion, Ahmed Al Sufi, Director of the Democratic Development Institute, said that social and political changes will come quickly if the JMPs adheres to their decision and boycotts the coming elections. “It will be a historic decision if the JMPs boycotted the coming elections. By this decision, they will accelerate social and political change. I hope they will commit to the decision of boycotting and not recant it” Al Sufi said, continuing, “the result will be a good and strong parliament that is not governed by political calculations, but rather by historic needs for development.”

Al Sufi, who identifies himself as an independent analyst, is a PGC member and a senior official in the Cabinet, called for establishment of a national political alliance for free and fair elections.

Surprisingly, the American National Democratic Institute (NDI) advised the Yemeni government to delay the parliamentary elections of April 2009 if the political parties did not reach an agreement over the coming elections.

“If the parties are unable to reach consensus and resolve the current impasse in a timely manner, then the government of Yemen should be open to considering a delay of the elections, in accordance with the Yemen law and regulations,” said the NDI, which has been a partner in Yemen’s democratic development since 1993, in a statement which was issued in Washington DC and distributed to media in Sana’a in the middle of November.

Les Campbell, NDI Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, said, “The current tensions and challenges surrounding voter registration do not bode well for the process going forward. Rather, they underscore the needs for the parties to come together to seek a consensus compromise so the elections can proceed as smoothly ad possible and contribute positively to Yemen’s democratic development.”

He added, “Yemen has been grappling with the challenges of making democratic progress over the last dozen years. If it takes a bit more time to establish consensus rules and administration for the 2009 elections, it is worth taking that time, consistent with Yemeni law, so that these elections can be seen as positive step and not a setback.”

The NDI also advised all political parties to “work collaboratively to reach a mutually agreeable resolution to the current impasse,” and “to honor the spirit of prior agreements and not become entrenched in partisan demands that might undermine the electoral process.”

The NDI warned that without a broad agreement on the rules and procedures governing the elections, Yemen could experience a political setback with unfortunate consequences for all Yemenis. It also called upon all parties in Yemen to work together to overcome the current impasse over the election law and election administration to ensure that the people of Yemen can experience well-managed and representative multi-party elections in 2009.

Campbell believes that the 2009 parliamentary elections should be conducted in a manner that continues in the positive direction made during the agreements prior to the 2006 presidential and local elections. However, NDI is concerned that the current political tensions have made reaching consensus on crucial election issues exceedingly difficult. Without broad agreement on the roles and procedures governing the elections, Yemen could experience a political setback with unfortunate consequences for all Yemenis.

In contrast, Peter Williams, head of the Sana’a-based office of the International Foundation of the Elections System (IFES), which has been technically supporting Yemeni elections since 1993, said that elections must go ahead on time. “Postponement of elections is not good for any country, and we will not support any boycott of elections. All elections everywhere have short comings. Elections should go ahead on its schedule with full political participation” he said.

One thing is certain: Yemen’s upcoming elections will continue to be controversial and predicting the outcome and indeed the participation is for the moment impossible.